Panorama internacional

Population ageing and government revenue


David Crowe, Jörg Haas, Valentine Millot, Łukasz Rawdanowicz and Sébastien Turban – OECD, 12 December 2022.
This paper sheds light on the macroeconomic consequences of population ageing for government revenue in a framework consistent with the OECD long-term model. If the labour and capital income shares in GDP remain constant and pension income increases in relation to GDP, the tax revenue-to-GDP ratio will increase slightly. However, this will not be enough to cover the total increase in government spending due to population ageing.
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